The Lakers made 18 of 37 threes in Sunday’s 131-125 win over Toronto, and JJ Redick still wanted to talk after the game about the ones they didn’t take. He said there were at least four times players passed up open threes, per Jovan Buha, and that from now on he is going to start pulling players out of the game when they do it.
Buha’s report names no one. The player whose numbers worry me most is Quentin Grimes. He averaged 5.1 three-point attempts a game in Philadelphia last season. He is taking 2.9 a game in Los Angeles. If Redick means it, Grimes is the player who should hear it first, and the warning would be good for him.
The Lakers Shoot Well and Not Often Enough
Start with the team. Through seven games, the Lakers have made 100 of 257 threes, 38.9%, per ESPN’s box scores. Through six games, Basketball Reference had them at 37.3% against a league average of 34.6%. That is a good shooting team, and it takes fewer threes than most. The Lakers averaged 36.7 three-point attempts through six games, below the league average of 37.6, with 18 teams taking more, per Basketball Reference. Sunday’s 37 left them at 36.7 a game. Their opponents have taken 275 threes in seven games to their 257, and Toronto launched 54 on Sunday, 17 more than the Lakers.
Part of that is turnovers. The Lakers averaged 80.5 shot attempts a game through six games, the fewest of all 30 teams, per Basketball Reference, and they gave it away 24 more times on Sunday. I wrote about the turnovers after the 25-point collapse at Golden State. Turnovers are possessions that never get to a shot. A passed-up open three is a possession that gets to the right shot and throws it away anyway.
Luka Makes the Shots Happen. Someone Has to Take Them
Luka Doncic is holding up his end. He went 8-for-12 from three on Sunday on his way to 45 points, 15 rebounds, six assists and five steals, and he has taken 81 threes in six games. Redick described what that does to a defense after the game: “When he has it going, it’s like, pick your poison, cause he can just make any shot. And then you start putting two on the ball and everybody else is the beneficiary of that,” he said, per the Los Angeles Times.
When a defense sends two at Doncic, somebody is open. The rest of the Lakers have made 65 of 176 threes this season, 36.9%. That’s plenty good enough to shoot every open one. On Sunday they went 10-for-25.
Some of them are already doing it. Matisse Thybulle is 15-for-31. Austin Reaves started the season with three attempts against Golden State and has taken five, five, eight, six, six and seven since, right around the six a night I asked for when I argued Reaves should take more threes. Collin Sexton (26 attempts) and Sandro Mamukelashvili (21) are letting it fly in their bench minutes.
Grimes Is Shooting Far Less
Here is Grimes, game by game, from ESPN’s box scores: 0-for-2, 3-for-5, 0-for-1, 0-for-3, 0-for-3, 1-for-3, 1-for-3. That’s 5-for-20 in 187 minutes. He has not taken more than five threes in any game, and he is playing 26.7 minutes a night.
Compare that with the player the Lakers signed. Per Basketball Reference, Grimes took 5.1 threes a game in 29.4 minutes for Philadelphia last season and made 33.4%. The year before, split between Dallas and Philadelphia, it was 5.6 a game at 38.5%. Per 36 minutes, his attempts went 8.4, 7.5 and 6.2 over the last three seasons. Through six games this season, Basketball Reference had him at 3.8. He’s taking a little more than half as many threes per game as last season, in about three fewer minutes.
I understand why. He’s 5-for-20, and nobody likes to keep missing in front of a new crowd. When he started at the Clippers on Oct. 28, he scored 23 by attacking: 7-for-15 from the field and 9-for-11 at the line, with three missed threes. That’s a fine night, and I’ve said before that Grimes deserves a real role next to Sexton instead of being treated as the odd man out. But a guard who stops shooting threes in a Doncic offense makes his defender’s job easy. That defender can sag into the paint, wait for the drive and help on Doncic, and Redick’s offense can’t afford that.
Sunday was a fair sample of the problem. Grimes played 26 minutes, took three threes and committed four turnovers, one of them a bad pass with 1:07 left in the middle of Toronto’s late run.
The money matters too. Grimes signed a four-year, $60 million deal with the Lakers this summer. They paid for a wing who shoots it, defends and keeps the floor spaced next to Doncic and Reaves. The 25% on 20 attempts should even out with time, and the 2.9 attempts a game are something he can change tomorrow.
Jake LaRavia Is the Other Name
If there is a second player who should take Redick’s warning personally, it’s Jake LaRavia. He has started the last three games and taken 14 threes in 140 minutes all season, making seven. In 35 minutes as a starter at the Clippers on Oct. 28, he didn’t take one.
I wrote in October that LaRavia’s three-point shot is the Lakers’ quiet swing factor, and that the number to watch was how often he lets it go. Last season he averaged 3.0 attempts a game and made 32.1%, per Basketball Reference. This season he is making them and still not taking them. That is the opposite of what the Lakers need from a starting forward who doesn’t create his own shot.
The Bench Has to Earn the Last Two Minutes
The open-three warning wasn’t Redick’s only complaint on Sunday. Doncic left with 2:28 to play and the Lakers up 123-107. At 1:43, Reaves, Walker Kessler and Thybulle came out too, leaving Grimes, Bronny James, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jaden Hardy and Cameron Carr, who was making his NBA debut. From 1:13 to 43.7 seconds left, Toronto scored 11 points while the Lakers made one free throw. Grimes threw a bad pass, James turned it over on an inbound, and Redick had to send his starters back in with the lead down to 125-120.
“I won’t make that mistake again,” Redick said, per The Sporting News. “I’ll leave the guys in. You got to play to the final buzzer.” Dan Woike’s verdict was blunter: “the back half of the roster just got waxed.”
It was one bad minute, and Grimes was on the floor for all of it. If the reserves can’t hold a 14-point lead for one minute, and the rotation players won’t take open threes, the starters will keep playing heavy minutes. That is the problem I flagged in the Doncic minutes plan, and it only gets solved if the bench takes some of that load.
What to Watch Against Miami
The Heat visit Crypto.com Arena on Monday, with the Lakers on the second night of a back-to-back. Two numbers will tell you whether Redick’s warning landed.
- Grimes’ three-point attempts. Five or more, made or missed, and he heard it. Two again, and I’d expect Redick to follow through on what he said Sunday.
- The Lakers’ total attempts. They have reached 40 threes in two of seven games. With Doncic drawing double teams, 40 should be the floor.
Redick made 41.5% of his threes over 15 seasons as a player, per Basketball Reference, and he is right to coach the way he shot. Grimes is a career 36.5% three-point shooter with a new $60 million contract and a coach who just said publicly that hesitating will cost players minutes. Shooting is the easiest way for him to keep his.