Scottie Barnes scored 41 points against Orlando on Friday night, the first 40-point game of his career, and he did it with one three-pointer. He went 19-for-34, career bests in makes and attempts, per the Associated Press. The Raptors still lost 121-114, and on Sunday they open a four-game road trip at Crypto.com Arena.
My take for Sunday: let him shoot the jumpers. Barnes is 3-for-18 from three this season, per ESPN’s box scores. Friday was a great night of turnarounds and pull-ups, mostly from 15 feet and in, and the Lakers should be happy to see him try to do it again. The things that should scare JJ Redick are Barnes at the rim and Toronto in the open floor, and that is where the help should go.
Where the 41 Came From
I went through ESPN’s play-by-play for all 19 of his makes. Four came at the rim: two layups, a dunk and a 3-footer. Ten came from 5 to 14 feet, most of them turnarounds and pull-ups. Three were two-point jumpers from 15 feet or longer, one was a three, and one was a two with no distance listed.
That’s a hot shooting night, and he earned it. He was 11 of 24 in the first half alone, per the AP. But look at how little of it came from the line. Barnes shot three free throws all night, and Darko Rajakovic was not happy about it. “For me, a player that gets three foul shots in a game, who scores 41 points and goes to the free-throw line three times, that’s kind of B.S., to be honest with you,” the Raptors coach said, per The Canadian Press. Barnes said he “definitely” could have gotten to the line more.
Maybe the whistle was bad. The free throws aren’t what worries me, though. Only four of his 19 makes came at the rim, and 14 came from five feet or farther, including the turnarounds, the pull-ups and a fadeaway. On Friday they went in. The Lakers should bet they won’t twice in three days.
The Other Four Games Tell a Different Story
Before Friday, Barnes had scored 23, 28, zero and 28, per ESPN. The zero came at Minnesota on Oct. 25, when he went 0-for-12 with five missed threes. In those four games, per the play-by-play, he made 15 shots at the rim, eight from 5 to 14 feet and six two-point jumpers from 15 feet or longer.
So the jumper is a real part of his game, and it can get hot. But it’s the shot I’d rather give him than the alternatives. He has made 17 of 18 free throws this season, so fouling him just hands him points. At the rim, he made eight shots against Orlando on Wednesday. From three, he is 3-for-18.
Barnes is listed at 6-foot-8 on ESPN’s roster. My plan: guard him with size, go under the screens when he has the ball, and keep a second body between him and the basket instead of jumping out at him 15 feet from the rim.
Toronto Without Kawhi Leonard Lives in the Paint
The Raptors are 3-2, and they have played the last three games without Kawhi Leonard. The team announced Tuesday that Leonard would miss at least a week with swelling in his left knee, with no acute injury found on imaging, and he was expected to miss four games starting with Wednesday’s game against Orlando, per GMA News. That puts Sunday inside the window, and ESPN’s injury report lists him out.
Without Leonard, Toronto’s offense runs through Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett, and it lives inside the arc. The Raptors are averaging 51.6 points in the paint and 20.6 fast-break points, per ESPN’s box scores. They have made 53 of 165 threes this season, 32.1%.
Toronto shoots threes nothing like the Golden State team that just made 22 of them on the Lakers. Quickley (15-for-40) and Ja’Kobe Walter (14-for-32) can make them, so I wouldn’t leave either one wide open. But Toronto’s damage comes inside, and every possession the Lakers spend helping off a shooter to stop a Barnes 12-footer is a possession that tilts the wrong way.
The open floor is the other half. Toronto has 62 steals in five games, and its opponents have turned it over 21.4 times a game, per ESPN. That should sound familiar. The Lakers have turned it over 21 or more times in three of their six games, and Austin Reaves has 16 turnovers in his last two games. The fastest way to turn Barnes back into a 40-point scorer is to give him a runway.
Who Takes Barnes
This is where the injury report matters. Ziaire Williams is questionable, per Jovan Buha and Dave McMenamin, and ESPN’s injury report lists a left foot injury. Jake LaRavia started the last two games in his place. Williams, at 6-foot-9, is the long wing the Lakers would want on Barnes, and I’ve argued he should be cutting more and settling for fewer jumpers on the other end too.
If Williams sits, I’d start LaRavia on Barnes and use Jarred Vanderbilt, who is 6-foot-8, for longer stretches than his two appearances this season would suggest. Matisse Thybulle is my pick as the Lakers’ best on-ball defender, but at 6-foot-5 he’s better used on Quickley, where his hands can bother the Raptors’ ball handlers. I made the case earlier this month that Thybulle is the Lakers’ wing stopper, and Sunday is a game where he should guard the point guard.
Behind all of it is Walker Kessler, who is averaging 2.8 blocks per game, per Basketball Reference. The Lakers held both the Clippers and the Warriors to 28 points in the paint in their last two games, per ESPN. The first four opponents scored 48 to 58. Toronto, at 51.6 a game, is the real test of that. I’ve argued that Kessler gives the Lakers permission to pressure the ball. Against Barnes, he gives them permission to stay home on the rim instead.
Buha also reported that Cameron Carr is cleared to make his regular-season debut. He’s 6-foot-5 and hasn’t played a regular-season minute, so this isn’t his matchup. If Williams sits, though, he is one more wing body on a night when the Lakers need them. They host Miami on Monday on the second night of a back-to-back.
What I’ll Be Watching
Three things, and you can check all of them in the box score on Sunday night.
- Barnes’ free-throw attempts. If he gets to the line 10 times, the Lakers fouled a 94% shooter, and the plan didn’t work.
- Toronto’s fast-break points. The Raptors are averaging 20.6. Keep them under 15 and the Lakers’ half-court defense gets to do its job.
- Toronto’s paint points. The Lakers held their last two opponents to 28 each. Anything near Toronto’s 51.6 average means Barnes is getting to the rim.
If Barnes beats them with another night of 15-footers, give him credit and go play Miami. That’s a better way to lose than giving him layups. With Leonard out and the Lakers a wing short, Sunday is a game the Lakers should win, but only if they guard the rim first.