Luka Doncic made 57.5% of his two-point attempts last season, according to Basketball Reference. Before the Lakers try to answer a Stephen Curry three with something equally ridiculous on Wednesday, I would like them to remember that number. Getting closer to the basket is still allowed, even on national television.
My opening-night preference is simple: make Golden State defend Doncic inside the arc first. Let the threes come from the defense collapsing, or from a defender giving him room. I want the Lakers to establish a way to reach the paint before they start testing how many difficult jumpers their best player can make.
The Warriors’ official game preview, published Tuesday, lists Wednesday’s opener at Crypto.com Arena for 7 p.m. PDT on ESPN. This is a useful first assignment for the offense. There will be plenty of temptation to turn the night into Luka versus Steph, with everyone else waiting for the next spectacular shot. I would rather see the Lakers make Golden State defend the screen, the roll and the next pass.
According to Doncic’s Basketball Reference page, he made 439 of 763 two-point attempts in 2025-26 and 254 of 694 threes. Those totals work out to about 1.15 points per two-point attempt and 1.10 per three-point attempt, before accounting for free throws, rebounds or turnovers. It is a modest gap. It is enough to question the assumption that every extra Luka three is automatically progress.
These are season averages across different kinds of possessions, not a menu of identical shots. His two-point percentage includes jumpers as well as finishes. A clean three can be a better choice than driving into a crowd. Here is the sequence I want: get the defense moving toward the ball, then decide where the shot belongs.
Give the Screen a Chance to Matter
I would start with a Doncic ball screen and a clear side of the floor for the roller. Set it early enough that a first attempt which goes nowhere can become another action. If the defender backs up, Luka has room to advance. If both defenders go toward him, the pass has to leave before the sideline becomes a third defender.
That is where Walker Kessler belongs in this discussion. In Chaitanya Dadhwal’s Yahoo Sports account of his practice comments, Doncic described repetitions as the way to develop a better feel for their pick-and-roll partnership, alongside conversations. I take that as a reason to keep letting the pairing work through those reads. A screen followed by Doncic dribbling in place while Kessler watches is a wasted chance to build the connection.
My preferred sequence asks Kessler to screen, roll hard and be ready for the ball before he reaches the rim. The weak-side wing should hold his space until his defender commits. If that defender steps into the lane, Luka has a passing target outside. If he stays home, the two players involved in the screen have more room to work. Nobody needs to invent a new offense to make that useful.
For this matchup, I would judge the forwards by whether their positioning makes the initial action easier. A teammate drifting toward the ball can bring another defender into Luka’s path. Standing in a useful place, then reacting at the right moment, is real work even if it never gets a replay.
That is also why Jake LaRavia’s willingness to shoot matters to the spacing. My paint-first preference needs the wings to take the open shots the action creates. A kickout that becomes a hesitation lets the defense recover. The point of going inside is to force a choice, and the Lakers should punish whichever choice leaves someone open.
I would resist calling for a different lineup after a couple of missed corner threes. If the ball reached the lane, drew help and found an open shooter, that is an offensive possession worth repeating. If Doncic makes a contested jumper after everyone stands still, enjoy the basket. I would still ask for a better possession next time.
The Free-Throw Line Is Part of the Argument
Basketball Reference lists Doncic at 10.1 free-throw attempts per game last season. He finished 503-for-645 at the line, or 78.0%. That production sits outside the simple two-versus-three calculation above, and it is a substantial reason I want him attacking with purpose.
It would be wrong to attach all those free throws to drives. Players draw shooting fouls on jumpers, and trips to the line happen in other situations too. The useful point is that Doncic already has a large source of scoring beyond made field goals. I would build opening possessions that give him chances to use it, while keeping a pass available when the lane closes.
I do not want an evening of hunting whistles. Driving with no exit and hoping an official rescues the possession is its own bad shot. Luka should be able to stop, find the roller, move the ball to Austin Reaves or take an available jumper. Paint pressure works best when the defender has to respect more than one outcome.
His 8.3 assists per game last season, also from Basketball Reference, are a reminder that passing is already central to his offense. My request is for the other Lakers to make those passing options visible early. Reaves can offer a release pass and attack the next opening. A wing can stay ready on the opposite side. Kessler can keep rolling rather than stopping because he did not receive the first pass.
I would watch what happens after Golden State interrupts the first action. Does the ball move to another player who can attack, or come straight back to Doncic with less time? We have already looked at the playmaking burden around Luka and Reaves. Wednesday offers a practical test of whether the offense can keep going after Luka gives it up.
There is room for his pull-up three in all of this. If Golden State goes under a screen and leaves a clean look, I want him taking it. If the clock is running out, he may have to create a difficult shot. I just do not want the bailout shot promoted to the opening plan because it looks great when it goes in.
For the first stretch of Wednesday’s game, I will watch whether the Lakers get a defender to leave his assignment. A roll toward the rim, a drive that pulls in a wing, a pass that gives Reaves a moving defense: those are the possessions I want repeated. Make Golden State respond to something before asking Luka to shoot over everything.