The last time the Lakers played a team that couldn’t finish its defensive possessions, Jake LaRavia went 0-for-4, scored zero points and was one of the most useful players on the floor. He grabbed seven offensive rebounds in 21 minutes in Milwaukee on Wednesday, and the Lakers pulled down 19 as a team, their high for the season, per Basketball Reference’s box score. They won by 11.
Sunday’s opponent is worse at this than the Bucks. Phoenix grabs 66.6% of available defensive rebounds, last in the NBA, per Basketball Reference. My take for the 4 p.m. ET tip in Phoenix: JJ Redick should turn LaRavia and Walker Kessler loose on the offensive glass, and accept a little less floor balance to do it. The only thing that should make him pull them back is the Suns’ best defensive skill, which is taking the ball away.
Phoenix Gives Everybody Second Chances
The league average is 72.9%, which means a normal opponent rebounds 27.1% of its own misses. Against the Suns, opponents rebound 33.4% of them. The Suns’ opponents rebound their own misses at a higher rate than Charlotte’s league-leading 32.9%.
It isn’t one ugly night skewing the average either. Opponents have grabbed 14.2 offensive rebounds a game against the Suns, and only Milwaukee (14.6) gives up more, per Basketball Reference. In the Suns’ game log, opponents reached 15 in six of 11 games, including 19 by Golden State in October.
Part of it is the roster. Mark Williams had surgery on a torn labrum in his left shoulder in September and is still out, per the injury table on the Suns’ Basketball Reference page, which cites ESPN’s Shams Charania. Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, Miles Bridges and Jalen Green have started all 11 games, with Khaman Maluach (six starts) and Oso Ighodaro (five) splitting the center spot. Bridges (22.5% defensive rebound rate) and Maluach (24.2%) do the work. Booker is at 7.0%, and backup guards Collin Gillespie and Luke Kennard sit at 7.1% and 7.3%.
LaRavia Is the Lakers’ Second Big on the Glass
The Lakers grab 29.2% of their own misses, 10th in the league, and Kessler and LaRavia account for almost half of the team’s offensive boards. Kessler grabs 14.3% of available offensive rebounds when he’s on the floor and averages 3.5 a game, per the Lakers’ Basketball Reference page. Among the nine Lakers with 200-plus minutes, LaRavia is next at 11.0%, and nobody else is above Sandro Mamukelashvili’s 5.3%.
In this morning’s piece on Redick’s audit, I pointed at LaRavia’s 2.2 offensive rebounds and 1.8 defensive rebounds a game as a habit aimed at the wrong basket. Against Phoenix, that habit becomes a weapon. With Bridges at power forward, the Suns’ other three starters are guards and wings who rebound like guards and wings, and one of them is going to end up responsible for a forward who has been crashing all season. That’s a matchup the Lakers should run at over and over.
LaRavia’s jumper won’t carry him yet. He has made 52.2% of his threes, but on only 1.9 attempts a game. I wrote in October that his three-point volume was the Lakers’ quiet swing factor, and the volume still isn’t there. Until it is, his best offense comes from what happens when somebody else misses, and no team gives up a bigger share of those chances than the Suns.
Kessler’s part is more direct. Maluach is a real rebounder, so Kessler won’t get free tips every trip. But Maluach plays 19.5 minutes a game. When he sits, Kessler should live on the weak side of the rim. If the Lakers get more than 15 offensive rebounds Sunday, the Suns’ defense, 26th in the league at 118.2 points allowed per 100 possessions, gets very little relief.
The Catch Is the Ball Itself
The Suns get beaten on the offensive glass in their wins and in their losses, and what separates the two is turnovers. In their five wins, Phoenix forced 19.2 turnovers a game. In their six losses, 15.8. Orlando gave them 25 in a Suns win on Nov. 5, and Charlotte gave them 27 in Thursday’s 101-96 Phoenix win, per the Suns’ game log. Overall the Suns force a turnover on 14.9% of opponent possessions, tied for fifth in the league.
That’s where the Lakers are most vulnerable. They turn it over on 14.9% of their own possessions, tied for the fifth-highest rate in the league, and 16.9 times a game. Even the Milwaukee win came with 18 turnovers. I’ve written about it more than once, most loudly after Austin Reaves’ 16 turnovers in two games. Phoenix is the kind of team that turns that habit into a loss.
So here’s the trade I’d make. Crash with two, sometimes three, and get back with everyone else. Offensive rebounds are the best possessions the Lakers can get against Phoenix, and turnovers are how the Suns have stolen their wins. I’ll take a missed shot that LaRavia chases over a lazy cross-court pass every time.
Booker, and Who’s Available
The Suns’ offense runs through Booker, who averages 25.5 points on 49.5% shooting with a 29.3% usage rate, per Basketball Reference. Brooks is shooting 43.1% from three, so the help can’t sag off him. Matisse Thybulle has started all 13 games for the Lakers and should spend most of Sunday attached to Booker, which is exactly the job I described in the case for Thybulle as the wing stopper.
The Lakers’ availability is still open as of Saturday afternoon. Reaves (left heel bruise), Collin Sexton (stitches above his right eye) and Quentin Grimes (finger) are all listed as day-to-day on ESPN’s injury report for the game. Redick called Reaves’ bruise “minor” Friday and said a concussion had been ruled out for Sexton, per the Times’ Broderick Turner. Luka Doncic hurt his right ankle late in the Milwaukee win, and Redick said of him, “The expectation would be he’s available.” Grimes said he expects to play. I’ve already argued the Lakers should give Reaves this one off. If they do, the rotation gets thinner at guard and LaRavia’s minutes matter even more.
The Lakers are 11-2 and tied with San Antonio for the West’s best record, riding seven straight wins and four straight on the road, per Basketball Reference’s schedule. Phoenix is 5-6 but has won four of five, and it’s 5-3 at home. It’s also the first of four meetings between the teams this season, per ESPN.
Ziaire Williams told reporters Friday that the team hoped to clean up the problems in Redick’s audit “going into the next game against Phoenix.” The Lakers’ own defensive glass is a fight for Tuesday against Charlotte. On Sunday, the misses at the other end are there for the taking. I’d want to see LaRavia with five offensive rebounds by the fourth quarter, and the Lakers under 15 turnovers. Do both, and the Suns are left needing Booker to outscore everything else.