Detroit has played eight games and allowed 101.8 points a game. That’s the fewest in the league, per Basketball Reference, and opponents are shooting 41.7% against the Pistons, also the lowest mark in the NBA. The Lakers walk into Little Caesars Arena on Sunday as the league’s highest-scoring team at 122.0 a game.
Luka Doncic is averaging 40.1 points, and he’ll get his. My take is about the other end: Detroit’s offense runs through one great shooter and one star who isn’t a shooter. The Lakers should glue a defender to Duncan Robinson for every second he’s on the floor, and live with whatever Cade Cunningham does from three.
Robinson Is Detroit’s Best Shooter by a Mile
Robinson is averaging 19.0 points and making 4.4 threes a game on 47.9% shooting, per his Basketball Reference page. He’s taking 9.1 threes a game, up from 7.0 last season. He’s also a career 40.1% three-point shooter over 508 games, so the Lakers shouldn’t wait for him to cool off.
Now take him out. Detroit has made 111 of 294 threes this season, per ESPN’s box scores. Robinson is 35-for-73. Everybody else is 76-for-221, which is 34.4%. Pull Robinson’s makes out and the Pistons go from a good shooting team to an ordinary one.
You can see it in the results. Detroit’s two best scoring nights were 128 at Miami and 124 at Charlotte, and Robinson made five and six threes in them. In the 111-97 loss at New York he went 2-for-10 from deep and scored 12, and Detroit didn’t crack 100. At Brooklyn he made two and Detroit won by 16 anyway. He was great in the other loss, 27 points on 7-for-11 from three against Philadelphia on Wednesday, so Robinson going cold won’t decide every game. It’s still the best single thing the Lakers can control.
One more wrinkle: Robinson is getting to the line four times a game, against 1.4 last season, and he’s 27-for-32 there. Guys who run off screens draw fouls from defenders who arrive late and leap. The Lakers were called for 29 fouls in both Portland games. A closeout that ends in three free throws for an 84% foul shooter is the worst possession they can give up.
Who Chases Him
This is a Matisse Thybulle game. I wrote before the season that Thybulle is the Lakers’ wing stopper if he stays healthy, and trailing a shooter through screens for 24 minutes is the job description. When Thybulle sits, Quentin Grimes takes Robinson. Nobody switches off him to help on a drive unless the ball is at the rim.
Doncic has an easy assignment available. Ausar Thompson has taken three threes in seven games and missed all three, per ESPN’s box scores. He’s dangerous on the glass (17 rebounds against Philadelphia), so Doncic still has to hit him on a box-out, but he can sag off him into the paint all night.
Detroit is also playing without Jalen Duren. The Pistons announced on Oct. 25 that he would miss at least two weeks with a right hamstring strain, per Field Level Media, and ESPN’s injury report still lists him out. Paul Reed has started at center in all six games since. That’s a thinner Pistons rotation than the one that won 60 games last season.
Make Cunningham Shoot Over the Top
Cunningham is averaging 24.0 points and 7.6 assists, per Basketball Reference. He’s a problem, and the Lakers aren’t going to stop him. The point is to choose which version of him they face.
He’s 18-for-55 from three this season, 32.7%, and a 33.9% shooter for his career. Inside the arc this season he’s 49-for-87. When he gets downhill, he scores or he finds Robinson spotting up. When he pulls up from deep, the math is on the Lakers’ side.
Wednesday’s loss to Philadelphia showed both sides of it. Cunningham went 9-for-22 and 1-for-9 from three. With 37 seconds left and a chance to cut the deficit to three, he pulled up for a three and Jaylen Brown blocked it, per the Associated Press. That’s the shot I want him taking on Sunday, contested or not.
So the plan is to go under screens against Cunningham, keep a big body between him and the rim with Walker Kessler, and never send the help from Robinson’s side. If he beats them with five or six threes, tip the cap.
The Ball Has to Stay in Lakers Hands
The Pistons force 18.1 turnovers a game, fourth in the league behind Toronto, the Lakers themselves and Atlanta, per Basketball Reference. They’ve scored 20.5 points a game off those turnovers, by my count from ESPN’s box scores. They put up 37 off Charlotte’s 27 giveaways on Monday.
The Lakers average 17.0 turnovers, tied for the sixth-most in the league. Doncic is at 4.9 a game. The good news is the last two games: 12 turnovers at Sacramento and 11 against Portland, counting team turnovers, per ESPN. Only the 10 at Utah were fewer. Against Portland they won the turnover battle 24-11, and I said then that steals were the number to watch in Detroit. I’d add the other side of the ledger. If the Lakers keep it to 13 or fewer against this defense, they’ll score enough.
The Calendar Matters Too
The game tips at 3 p.m. Pacific on Sunday, and the Lakers play in Atlanta on Monday night, then go to Milwaukee. That’s a back-to-back to open the trip. The Lakers are 8-2 and have won four straight, and Detroit is 6-2 but lost its last game at home.
Doncic is playing 36.0 minutes a game. I argued in October that the Lakers should cap him at 34 minutes and save his legs for April, and Sunday, the first night of a back-to-back, is a good place to start. The way to buy those minutes is to win the Robinson matchup on defense so Doncic doesn’t have to win a shootout.
Hold Robinson under his 4.4 threes a game and Detroit has to beat the league’s highest-scoring team with a roster that shoots 34.4% from deep without him.